Door Open For a Third Party Candidate in NL Wildcard Race

The National League wildcard may be the last real playoff race left in Major League Baseball, and it figures to be an exciting one because it looks like a race that none of the favorites really seems quite good enough to win. Coming into September, the race appeared to be between Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and the New York Mets, and it now appears entirely possible that none of those teams may end up in the Wildcard spot. The Phillies have won five straight, and with the Mets Faltering, appear to be the favorites to win the NL East. The Brewers appear to be struggling to stay in the race, with a 3-12 record in September, and they showed the urgency of their situation with their surprise firing of manager Ned Yost monday. It may be too late to turn the Brewers’ ship around with the uncertainty of a new manager, and five of their last eleven games coming against the Chicago Cubs, who have been a nightmare for the Brewers all season. The Mets can hardly be considered a strong favourite either, having lost four of their last five, and with absolutely no one in the baseball world forgetting their collapse out of the playoff picture last September.

With the Mets and Brewers showing their weaknesses, and both teams’ September shortcomings of a year ago still fresh in our memories, the door may have opened for a sleeper pick to emerge. A well timed hot streak may allow the Houston Astros – out of the playoff picture all season until very recently – to pull ahead of the pre-season playoff favourites and into the franchise’s third National League Wildcard spot since 2004.

Houston has been one of baseball’s hottest second-half teams, and must now be considered in the NL Wildcard picture at only three games out, with twelve left to play. The Astros are a late entrant to the playoff picture, and got there on the strength of winning 21 games in August, and winning 15 of 16 between August 27 and September 14. That streak came to a halt in two hurricane-displaced “home” games versus Chicago in front of a Cubs-partisan crowd in Milwaukee, in which the lineup combined for a total of one hit.

The Astros still remain a factor because in their twelve remaining games, nine are against teams with records well below .500 (Pittsburgh, Cincinnatti, and Atlanta); and their final seven games of the schedule will be played at home. Houston has struggled offensively of late, scoring only two runs in their past three games, but should get a needed offensive boost with Ty Wigginton, and Kazuo Matsui both expected to return from injuries soon. Wigginton has been out of the lineup since September 7th with a groin injury, and the Astros have struggled to score runs in his absence. Wigginton was an important part of the team’s offensive success in August, hitting 12 home runs in the month. While a hot streak like that may be difficult to repeat, Wigginton’s bat will still surely spark the Astros’ slumping lineup upon its return, and Matsui may offer similar help with his return to the top of the batting order.

The Astros have had a tough three games, but have definitely earned their place in the NL Playoff picture. The returning pieces of their lineup, and the team’s return to Minute Maid Park should certainly help the Astros return to form. The Astros still have 12 games left to decide whether or not they can become this year’s Colorado Rockies (and if the Mets and Brewers can become this year’s New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers). If nothing else, they’ve helped make things interesting, and given a reason to stay tuned to Houstonians, and lovers of the underdog alike.